76ers vs Heat NBA betting picks and predictions: Must-win Miami face shorthanded Philly

The Philadelphia 76ers head to Miami to take on the Heat in NBA action on Tuesday night.

The Sixers are locked into third place in the Eastern Conference and will likely rest key players, making the Heat 4-point faves at home in a must-win game for them. The Heat need to win their last two games of the season, have Detroit lose out and have Charlotte lose at least one of their final two contest for them to get into the playoffs. We break down the odds and best bets for what could be Dwyane Wade’s last game in Miami.

Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat (-4, 220)

Quick Hitter

The 76ers will be missing both Joel Embiid and JJ Reddick for today’s game but still have plenty of fire-power with Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris and Jimmy Butler. A matter of fact without Embiid and Reddick who thrive in half-court sets, Philadelphia is more likely to run the floor with Simmons and a small-ball lineup.

With Miami being given -140 odds in the race to 20 points and Philly likely to start the game by pushing the tempo back them to hit 20 points first.

Prediction: Race to 20 points – Philadelphia (+100)

First Half Bet

The absence of Embiid and Reddick takes a big bite out of a 76ers first-half offense that ranks second in the league with 59.8 points per game. Jimmy Butler sat out the last two games with tightness in his back and is listed as probable, but given the low importance of this game for Philly we wouldn’t be surprised if he takes the night off as well.

The Heat will also be without their leading scorer in Josh Richardson who averages 16.6 points and 2.2 made 3-point shots per game. With Philly scoring just 54.1 ppg in the first half and allowing just 53.5, take the 1H Under.

Prediction: First Half Under 113 (-110)

Team/Player Prop

Someone has to take the shots and score the points for Philadelphia, and Tobias Harris might be the best bet to do it. Harris’ numbers have gone down since being traded from the Clippers, but his 18.7 ppg for Philly is still impressive.

He has also torched Miami in all three of the games he’s played against them this season, scoring at least 20 points in each contest and averaging 24.7 ppg on 52.8 percent shooting. He should get more shots than usual tonight so back him to go Over his points total.

Prediction: Points Tobias Harris – Over 18.5 (-125)

Full Game Total

This is an easier decision for me than the full game side.

Philadelphia has one of the top offenses with the league, but that’s with Embiid and Reddick who combine for 45.6 ppg. With both of them missing this game, Philly will be without its best inside scorer and shooter, both of whom open up the floor for other players to get good looks at the basket. The 76ers average 116.4 ppg during the 64 games that Embiid has played this season but that number dips to 110.8 ppg in the 16 games that he’s missed.

The Heat are one of the lowest scoring teams in the league, averaging just 105.7 ppg, and also allow the second-fewest points at just 105.9 ppg. They’ve gone 6-0 to the Under in their last six games in Miami. Jump on the Under before it goes lower.

Prediction: Under 220 (-110)

Full Game Side

Miami should be extra motivated in this one, both to stay alive in the playoff race but also to send Wade out with a win on what will probably be his last home game. But they should have been motivated in every one of their last four games as well and lost all of those. The Heat have won only three of their last nine games and those victories came against some of the worst teams in the league in Dallas, New York and Washington.

Miami is also one of the few teams in the league where homecourt advantage doesn’t seem like much of an advantage. The Heat are 18-22 at American Airlines Arena and 20-20 on the road. As a home favorite they’ve been a horrific 9-19 ATS this season.

The 76ers are definitely a far worse team without Embiid but with Simmons and Harris they should still have the two best players in the game and if Butler suits up they would have the best three. The Heat will simply have a hard time keeping up with the Sixers in terms of talent and even on the best of days would have trouble covering a spread of this size. Take the better team as the underdogs to cover.

Prediction: Philadelphia +4 (-110)